Monday, August 25, 2014

Anticipate interest rate to creep up soon (0.25% in 6 months)
What change should a portfolio composition?

Net-wisdom: bond and gold will be hurted.

my view:

  1. Interest rate raise is to curb inflation: good news overall (SP500) should still raise.
  2. FED will be careful not to kill the fragile growing economics: the momentum will continue but slower. 
  3. FED will be transparent and hint to the public: prices reflect the expectation already.
  • The index fund/ETF should grow => 60%
  • Harder to pick alpha Stock and sector fund. => use my trend following algorithm 20%
  • bond and gold position is to protect unexpected shocks, not the reasonable and expected interest rate increase. check the right proportion. (case too) => 10%  each gold/bond/cash
Quant: check best fund/etf to invest, check beta for gold and bond, check fee structure on bond/gold


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